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See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305865262
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9/56 year cycle: lunar north node - apogee angles
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Article · March 2016
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CITATIONS
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1 author: David Mcminn 61 PUBLICATIONS 111 CITATIONS
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SEE PROFILE
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READS
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1,535
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All content following this page was uploaded by David Mcminn on 05 August 2016.
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The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.
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New Concepts in Global Tectonics Journal, V. 4, No. 1, March 2016. www.ncgt.org
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9/56 year cycle: lunar north node - apogee angles
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David McMinn Independent Scholar Twin Palms, Blue Knob, NSW 2480, Australia mcminn56@yahoo.com
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Abstract. A 9/56 year cycle was first established for the timing of financial panics and then extrapolated to seismic episodes. The cycle was believed to arise from lunisolar tidal effects, as the grid correlated perfectly with the ecliptic positions of the lunar north node and the apogee point. This raised suspicions that the angle between these two points would play a key role in seismic and financial trends. September/October panics were assessed and found to occur with angles between the lunar north node and apogee almost exclusively at 0°, 120° and 240°. This astonishing outcome is either an artifact of Moon Sun cycles or it was vitally important in the timing of critical events in the 9/56 year grid. The findings would apply to both earthquake and financial cycles.
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Keywords: Lunar nodes, apogee, 9/56 year cycle, financial, earthquakes
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(Accepted on 13 March 2016)
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Introduction
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For many years, the role played by apogee in financial trends remained enigmatic. McMinn (2004) could
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not produce correlates to support an apogee effect in 9/56 year panic cycle or financial patterns generally.
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This was despite much personal research and an examination of references in astronomy and technical
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analysis. He concluded that “Apogee has no proven relationship with market activity and there are two
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options:
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*
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Earth – Moon distance is irrelevant in financial trends.
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*
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Apogee functions in an unknown manner in relation to the markets.
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Presumably the latter is correct and apogee is relevant to financial patterns, although this view remains entirely conjectural.” Importantly, McMinn (2004) was unaware of the early findings by Matlock (1977), who found the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tended to rise after the Moon had transited apogee and fall after it had transited perigee.
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The 9/56 year cycle consists of a grid with intervals of 56 years on the vertical (called sequences) and intervals in multiples of 9 years on the horizontal (called subcycles). It was first established for financial crises (McMinn, 1986, 1993), and then extrapolated to seismic events (McMinn, 2011a, 2011b, and 2014) and volcanic eruptions (McMinn, 2012). Thus it is important to study financial cycles to gain possible insights into the timing of earthquakes. The key question arises as to what activates the 9/56 year cycle?
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The 9/56 year grid correlates perfectly with Moon Sun cycles. Events falling in the same 56 year sequence
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will always have:
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*
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the lunar north node sited in a narrow segment of the ecliptic circle (1st harmonic).
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*
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the apogee point will be in three sectors on the ecliptic 120 o apart (3rd harmonic).
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Events clustering in the 9/56 year grid will have the lunar north node in two sectors approximately 180o opposite in the ecliptic circle with no exceptions (1st and 2nd harmonics). For events in the same 9/56 year grid and occurring around the same time of year, apogee will be sited in three ecliptic sectors 120 o apart, with no exceptions (3rd harmonic). The link between the lunar north node and apogee implied that the angle between these two points was very important in the timing of critical events that cluster in the 9/56 year grid. Unfortunately, there was no information available on the cycles associated with North Node-Apogee angles (NN-Apogee). This paper examines these angles in relation to September/October financial panics.
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New Concepts in Global Tectonics Journal, V. 4, No. 1, March 2016. www.ncgt.org
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33
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Any findings established in finance may also have implications for earthquakes.
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Apogee is the point in the lunar orbit, where the Moon is the greatest distance from Earth, whereas the perigee point is the least distance. In the apse cycle, the apogee – perigee axis (apsides) rotates counter clockwise around the ecliptic circle from spring equinox to spring equinox every 8.8474 solar years. The apse cycle is very relevant in oceanic tides on Earth. When the full/new Moon is at apogee, the amplitude of tides in New York Harbor is 50% lower than when the full/new Moon is at perigee. Additionally, the lunar nodes are located where the ecliptic is cut by the plane of the Moon’s orbit around the Earth. The north (ascending) node is where the Moon crosses the ecliptic from south to north and the south (descending) node is where the Moon crosses from north to south. It also takes 5.995 years for apogee to pass from north node to north node. The lunar nodes are also important in terrestrial tides.
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September - October Panics
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In financial history, numerous major panics/crises have occurred between September 19 and October 31 and a listing has been presented in Appendix 1. It includes those events given by Kindleberger (Appendix B 1996), with an additional three inserted by the author (1839, 1869 and 1871). It also presented the annual one day (AOD) falls (≥ -3.60%) for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) since 1896. The AOD fall is the largest percentage one day DJIA fall during the year beginning March 1. These days are important in financial cycles, a finding supported by numerous correlates (McMinn, 2004).
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Of the 18 autumn panics in Appendix 1, NN-Apogee angles on 17 occasions occurred near 0o, 120o and 240o, implying a very strong 3rd harmonic. However, this may only be an artifact, due to October panics
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usually taking place in years ended in odd numbers. The anomaly was October 15, 2008 with NN-Apogee angle of 302 Ao and it was in an even ended year.
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NB: Any episodes in September/October will have NN-Apogee angles at 0 o, 60 o, 120 o, 180 o, 240 o and 300 o. Years in odd numbers have the NN-Apogee angles at 60 o, 180 o and 300 o and years ended in even numbers at 60 o, 180 o and 300 o.
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NN-Ap Angle Number
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0 degree
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7
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120 degree
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5
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240 degree
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5
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Anomalous AOD Fall
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300 degree
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1
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Range 358-008 118-126 238-246
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302
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September 19 to October 31 Panics 1847, 1871, 1907, 1931, 1937, 1955, 1997 1873, 1897, 1903, 1927, 1987 1839, 1857, 1869, 1929, 1989
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2008
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Intervals of 30 and 60 years arise between October panics (McMinn, 2010), with the same NN-Apogee angle and years ending in the same digit (eg: 1, 3, 7 or 9). Apogee takes 5.995 solar years to complete one cycle north node to north node. This multiplied by 5 and 10 gives 30 and 60 years respectively.
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NN-Ap Angle 0 degree
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120 degree
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240 degree
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Panics Btn Sep 19 and Oct 31
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1847 +60 1907 +30 1937 +60 1997 1871 +60 1931 1873 +30 1903 1897 +30 1927 +60 1987 1839 +30 1869 +60 1929 +60 1989
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Since 1896, there have been three DJIA AOD falls (≥ -4.50%) in the month to September 17. The British Black Wednesday (Sep 16, 1992) and the World Trade Center attack (Sep 11, 2001) were added to the listing (see Appendix 1). Only September 11, 2001, occurred at angles of 0o, 120o or 240o (3rd harmonic), as it was a year ending in an odd number. The four exceptions took place in angles of 60o and 180o, which
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was indicative of a 3rd harmonic and years ended in even numbers.
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Discussion and Conclusions
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Initially the results appeared astonishing. Virtually all October panics and DJIA AOD falls in Appendix 1 took place when the NN-Apogee angles were at about 0o, 120o and 240o. However, the importance of these
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New Concepts in Global Tectonics Journal, V. 4, No. 1, March 2016. www.ncgt.org
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angles may simply be an artifact of lunisolar cycles, with no real influence on financial activity and thus a research dead end. Any sample of September/October events will have NN-Apogee angles at 0o, 60o, 120o, 180o, 240o and 300o with no exceptions. October panics are most likely to happen in odd ended years and thus will have NN-Apogee angles near 000 Ao, 120 Ao and 240o. Events in even ended years would all have NN-Apogee angles near 60o, 180o and 300o, but only one October panic fell in this pattern – 2008 (300 Ao).
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Why October panics fall preferentially in odd ended years was unknown.
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It takes 5.995 solar years for apogee to complete one cycle north node to north node. Thus on the same date
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every year, apogee will complete one-sixth of this cycle. For example, if the NN-Apogee angle occurred at 0 Ao in September, it would progress to 60 Ao in September of the following year and to 120 Ao during the subsequent year and so forth, thus always giving angles in September of 0o, 60o, 120o, 180o, 240o and 300o.
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During a solar year, apogee moves 60o relative to the north node. Therefore, the NN-Apogee angle recorded in a particular month will deviate from the findings for September and produce different outcomes.
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In December, the NN-Apogee angles would always be at about 15o, 75o, 135 Ao, 195o, 255o and 315o – all separated by 60o.
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In March, the angles would always be at about 30o, 90o, 150o, 210o, 270o and 330o – all separated by 60o. In June, the angles would always be at about 45o, 105o, 165o, 225o, 285o and 345o - all separated by 60o. The results were only be achieved by assessing financial panics by month. If a full sample of financial panics (January to December) had been appraised, the effect would not have been detected.
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For the 9/56 year grid, apogee takes 5.995 solar years to complete one cycle north node to north node. Thus, the 9 year Half Saros eclipse cycle divided by 6 gives 1.5 (one plus a half), while the 56 year cycle divided by 6 gives 9.333 solar years (9 plus one third). In these examples, the 2nd, 3rd and 6th harmonics applied to NN–Apogee angles, a finding that would pertain to any event clustering in the 9/56 year grid.
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In this paper, the mean ecliptic position for apogee has been used throughout. However, distortions arise as the Moon orbits the Earth and the true apogee position can deviate from the mean by a wide margin. For comparison, the mean versus true position of apogee has been presented in Appendix 2. The relative merits of using mean or true apogee are unknown.
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There are two options to account for the findings on NN-Apogee angles and autumn panics:
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*
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NN-Apogee angles are merely artifacts of Moon Sun cycles. Any events in September - October
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will have NN-Apogee angles near 0o, 60o, 120o, 180o, 240o and 300o with no exceptions.
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*
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NN-Apogee angles and the 6th harmonic are extremely relevant in financial and seismic activity
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and further research is warranted in this area.
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Presumably the latter is correct although no proof can be offered. Both apogee and the lunar nodes should have a profound impact upon anything on Earth that is influenced by lunisolar tides, including the 9/56 year cycle. Such tidal forces are believed to drive market and seismic activity. Thus, NN-Apogee angles can be hypothesized to play a key role in the timing of critical phenomena and are vitally important in assessing trends in financial and earthquake history.
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Acknowledgements: The author wishes to thank the editor Dong Choi and the reviewers for their contributions in the publishing of this paper. As always their efforts were most appreciated.
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References Kindleberger, C P., 1996. Manias, Panics & Crashes. John Wiley & Sons. Matlock, C.C., 1977. Man and Cosmos, A Theory of Endeavor Rhythms. Development Cycles Research Project. McMinn, D., 1986. The 56 Year Cycles & Financial Crises. 15th Conference of Economists. The Economics Society
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of Australia. Monash University, Melbourne. 18p. Aug 25-29. McMinn, D., 1993. US Financial Crises & The Number 56. The Australian Technical Analyst Association Newsletter,
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p. 21-25. September. McMinn, D., 1994. Mob Psychology & The Number 56. The Australian Technical Analysts Association Newsletter, p.
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28. March.
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New Concepts in Global Tectonics Journal, V. 4, No. 1, March 2016. www.ncgt.org
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35
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McMinn, D., 2004. Market Timing By The Moon & The Sun. Twin Palms Publishing, 153p. McMinn, D., 2010. 60 year intervals and October panics. Market Technician. Journal of the Society of Technical
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Analysts, issue 67, p. 13-15. June. McMinn, D., 2011a. 9/56 Year Cycle: Californian Earthquakes. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 58,
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p. 33-44. March. McMinn, D., 2011b. 9/56 Year Cycle: Record Earthquakes. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 59, p.
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88-104. June. McMinn, D., 2011c. 9/56 Year Cycle: Hurricanes. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, no. 59, p. 105-111.
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June. McMinn, D., 2011d. 9/56 Year Cycle: Earthquakes in Selected Countries. New Concepts in Global Tectonics
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Newsletter, no. 60, p. 9-37. September. McMinn, D., 2012. 9/56 Year Cycle: World Mega Volcanic Eruptions. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter,
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no. 64, p. 7-18. September. McMinn, D., 2014. 9/56 Year Cycle: Earthquakes in Japan, Kamchatka and Alaska. New Concepts in Global
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Tectonics Journal, v. 2, no. 1, p. 1-20. March.
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Appendix 1
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NORTH NODE – APOGEE ANGLES & OCTOBER PANICS
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Sun
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Moon Phase NN
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Apo
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NN-Ap
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Eo
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Eo
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Ao
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Eo
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Eo
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Ao
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Panics & DJIA AOD Falls 1840 to 2015 ≥ -3.60%
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September 18 – October 31
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Oct 09, 1839
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196
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219
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023
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344
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224
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240
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Oct 23, 1847
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002
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Oct 14, 1857
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201
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165
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324
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086
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001
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Sep 21, 1897 (a) 179
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Oct 12, 1897 (a) 200
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042
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302
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064
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Oct 19, 1903 (b) 205
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Oct 22, 1907
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196
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|
|
|
|||
|
|
108
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
112
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
004
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Oct 08, 1927
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
194
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
344
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
150
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
082
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
204
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
122
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Oct 28, 1929
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
216
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
182
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
326
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
042
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
288
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
246
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Sep 24, 1931
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
181
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
338
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
157
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
005
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
005
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
000
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Oct 18, 1937
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
205
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
009
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
164
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
248
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
252
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
006
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Sep 26, 1955
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
183
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
301
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
119
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
261
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
262
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
001
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Oct 19, 1987
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
206
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
170
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
324
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
001
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
127
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
126
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Oct 13, 1989
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
200
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
004
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
164
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
323
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
208
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
245
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Oct 27, 1997
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
214
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
174
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
320
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
167
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
175
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
008
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Oct 15, 2008
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
203
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
036
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
193
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
315
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
261
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
306
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Early September DJIA AOD Falls
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
August 31 - September 17 ≥ -4.50%
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Sep 03, 1946
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
161
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
252
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
091
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
076
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
253
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
177
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Sep 11, 1986
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
169
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
264
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
095
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
022
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
082
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
060
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Sep 16, 1992
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
174
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
044
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
230
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
266
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
327
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
061
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Aug 31, 1998
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
158
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
265
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
107
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
150
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
209
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
059
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Sep 11, 2001
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
169
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
090
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
281
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
092
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
332
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
240
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
(a) Two AOD falls of almost equal declines were recorded in 1897.
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
(b) Another almost equal decline was evident on Aug 19, 1903 (-4.07%), but it was
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
not included as it did not happen between Sep 19 and Oct 31.
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
NB: Eo denoted ecliptic degrees and Ao angular degrees for lunar phase and NN-
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Apogee.
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
36
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
New Concepts in Global Tectonics Journal, V. 4, No. 1, March 2016. www.ncgt.org
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Appendix 2
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
APOGEE ECLIPTIC POSITION: MEAN VS TRUE
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Panics & DJIA AOD Falls 1840 to 2015 ≥ -3.60%
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
September 18 – October 31
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Panic/AOD fall Mean
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
True
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Panic/AOD fall Mean
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
True
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Apo Eo Apo Eo
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Apo Eo Apo Eo
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Oct 09, 1839
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
224
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
227
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Oct 08, 1927
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
204
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
212
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Oct 23, 1847
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
191
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
199
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Oct 28, 1929
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
288
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
279
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Oct 14, 1857
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
237
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
222
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Sep 24, 1931
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
005
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
356
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Sep 24, 1869
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
003
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
013
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Oct 18, 1937
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
252
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
240
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Oct 09, 1871
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
086
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
080
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Sep 26, 1955
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
262
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
258
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Sep 19, 1873
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
165
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
160
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Oct 19, 1987
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
127
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
119
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Sep 21, 1897 (a) 062
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
057
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Oct 13, 1989
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
208
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
209
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Oct 12, 1897 (a) 064
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
068
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Oct 27, 1997
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
175
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
169
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Oct 19, 1903 (b) 309
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
329
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Oct 15, 2008
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
261
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
264
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Oct 22, 1907
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
112
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
126
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Early September DJIA AOD Falls
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
August 31 - September 18 ≥ -4.50%
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Sep 03, 1946
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
253
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
253
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Aug 31, 1998 209
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
210
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Sep 11, 1986
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
082
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
086
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Sep 11, 2001 332
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
329
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Sep 16, 1992
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
327
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
343
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
(a) Two AOD falls of almost equal declines were recorded in 1897.
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
(b) Another almost equal decline was evident on Aug 19, 1903 (-4.07%), but it was not included as it
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
did not happen between Sep 19 and Oct 31. NB: Eo denoted ecliptic degrees.
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
View publication stats
|
|||
|
|
|